DENVER — A year ago, Avalanche players were receiving Stanley Cup rings and preparing to raise a championship banner. Now, coming off an early playoff exit, they’re trying to get back to that level.
As we look ahead to the season, let’s make some predictions about how things will play out for Colorado. This type of article isn’t always my strong suit; I try to be more measured in my declarative statements and not say anything outlandish. But as colleague Jesse Granger pointed out in his recent predictions story, these guesses are “probably going to be wrong either way, so why not have a little more fun with it?” With that in mind, I’m going to push myself to be a little more bold with these. In return, y’all will probably have to bear with me when only one or two end up being right.
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1. Nathan MacKinnon finishes top-two in Hart Trophy voting
And he doesn’t finish second. Obviously, there’s a fellow up in Edmonton who could have something to say about this, but MacKinnon feels destined to win a Hart at some point. Coming off a career-high 111 point campaign, this is going to be the year. He finished 2022-23 on an absolute tear, tallying 77 points — 34 of which were goals — in 47 games after Jan. 1. That’s 134-point, 59-goal pace. This season, MacKinnon is going to get off to a strong start and then have another torrid end of the year.
(More measured take: MacKinnon finishes top-three, and not necessarily first or second.)
Drouin is back with MacKinnon, his old junior hockey teammate, and the former Canadiens forward seems elated with his situation in Colorado. He will likely start the year on a line with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, and will accumulate plenty of points playing with them. His chemistry with MacKinnon won’t miss a beat, and he’ll finish the year with exactly as many points as he has games played.
(More measured take: Drouin finishes with 50-plus points if he’s healthy for 70-plus games.)
3. Miles Wood leads the team in fights
Wood is a hard-nosed, aggressive player, and he had two fights while playing for New Jersey last season. Wearing a new uniform, he’ll get in even more bouts this season and will end with the team lead.
(More measured take: Wood finishes second on the team in fights to Kurtis MacDermid.)
4. Ryan Johansen sets a career-high in goals
Johansen’s career-high came in 2013-14, when he scored 33 goals for Columbus. Playing in the bumper spot on the power play, the center is going to be in position to score plenty with Colorado. His ability to win faceoffs will massively benefit Colorado with the man advantage, and he’ll find himself in position to tip in pucks or bang home rebounds, helping him to a 34-goal campaign.
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(More measured take: Johansen finishes with 26 goals, tying the second-highest mark of his career.)
5. Colorado edges out Edmonton for best power play in the league
Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers’ star-studded power play scored on 32.4 percent of its opportunities last year. They’ll take a slight step back, and Colorado will catch them and finish first in the league. Cale Makar, MacKinnon, Johansen, Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen make for a heck of a top unit, and the group will be starting with the puck significantly more because of Johansen’s ability to win faceoffs. The second unit looks plenty capable, too. Devon Toews, Bowen Byram, Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin, Tomas Tatar, Valeri Nichushkin and Samuel Girard will fight for ice time in that group.
(More measured take: Colorado finishes top-three in power play conversion rate but can’t catch the Oilers.)
Olofsson has only 28 games of NHL experience, but he had a strong training camp and appears in line to be Colorado’s fourth-line center. He proves up for the task and is in the lineup every night, in part because Colorado doesn’t have a ton of center depth.
(More measured take: Olofsson is Colorado’s primary 4C and plays 60-plus games.)
7. Nikolai Kovalenko appears in playoff games — and scores an overtime winner
The 23-year-old Kovalenko, who is currently dealing with an injury, has 13 points in 11 KHL games this season. A 2018 sixth-round pick, he’s one of Colorado’s most interesting prospects. His KHL numbers have been excellent, and he’s expected to come to North America after his Torpedo season ends.
“I would think he was probably drafted young, thinking he could be this steady 200-foot checker, but he’s developed a really nice offensive ability in the KHL, and he’s being used in all situations,” coach Jared Bednar said during training camp.
Because of those skills, he will get an NHL chance and make the most of it, earning playing time in the postseason and winning a game for the Avalanche in overtime.
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(More measured take: Kovalenko makes his NHL debut and contends for — but does not necessarily receive — ice time in the playoffs. An overtime goal feels ambitious.)
8. Justus Annunen is second on the team in games played by a goalie
Colorado could still acquire a backup while Pavel Francouz (lower body) is out, but Annunen has had a great preseason and Bednar said he’s comfortable going into the season with the Finn as his No. 2 behind Alexandar Georgiev. With Francouz’s timeline unclear — he hasn’t been skating — Annunen is in line to get a longer look than he had previously at the NHL level. That will lead to him playing more games in net than any Avalanche goalie but Georgiev.
(More measured take: It’s impossible to know how much Annunen will play until there’s clarity on Francouz, but he will get more NHL opportunity than he has previously in his career.)
9. Colorado selects three players on waivers this season
The Avalanche won’t be able to accrue salary cap space because Gabriel Landeskog is on long-term injured reserve, so carrying extra players on the active roster might be less of a concern than in past years. That will lead general manager Chris MacFarland to take a multiple waiver swings with hopes of improving the team’s depth. An extra defenseman would make sense, and Colorado has picked up forwards (Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Dryden Hunt) in recent years. The Avalanche can also explore the goalies who go on waivers. By year’s end, Colorado will have claimed three players.
(More measured take: Colorado claims one or two players on waivers. Three is a lot.)
10. The Avalanche end their Game 7 drought — and win two of them
Colorado hasn’t won a Game 7 since its 2002 second-round series against San Jose. The Avalanche have lost six win-or-go-home games since, but that streak snaps this year. The Avalanche will win not only one but two Game 7s this postseason. I’m not sure in which rounds those victories will come, but they’re going to happen.
(More measured take: The Avalanche win one Game 7 and snap the skid.)
(Photo of Nathan MacKinnon: Steven Bisig / USA Today)
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